The hottest mainland futures fuel oil daily review

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Mainland Futures: fuel oil daily Review

fuel oil market analysis

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domestic Shanghai futures exchange fuel oil futures were affected by the international crude oil market. The main 0902 contract opened at 2550 yuan per ton, with a maximum of 2596 yuan per ton, and closed at 2576 yuan per ton, with 366030 transactions and 96670 positions. As the dollar began to fall, commodities are about to rebound, aggressive long, conservative wait for the rise and short

Singapore, November 4 (Reuters) - Asian fuel oil swap spreads fell on Tuesday, while spot demand slowed as traders expected supply to increase European arbitrage shipments flowing into Asia in November will increase by about a fifth to 3.4 million tons At the same time, exports from the Middle East are also expected to grow In contrast, China's demand may continue to weaken, with refiners hit by poor profits either reducing production or simply shutting down production 180 CST fuel oil swap spread fell $22.00 to $250.00 per ton in November 380cst fuel oil swap spread fell $22.50 to $244.50 per ton in November 180CST fuel oil spot discount fell $2.00 to $9.00 per ton Canon can sell 20000 tons of 180CST fuel oil cargo scheduled for November 19-23 to Vitol at a discount of US $9.00 per barrel to the Singapore spot price This is the only spot transaction at the end of this trading day In November, the discount of crude oil cracking spread narrowed by $1.41 to $15.25 per barrel compared with Dubai However, traders expect that with the increase of supply, the cracking spread will resume its decline

crude oil market analysis

main points and operation suggestions:

point of view: at present, the downward trend of crude oil is over, waiting for the U.S. economy to improve

information gathering and editing:

on Tuesday, the international oil price continued to fall in the Asian and London trading stage, and Brent crude oil futures fell below $59 a barrel, the lowest level in 20 months. However, in the New York trading stage, on the US election day, investors bet that the global interest rate cut and the thaw of the credit market would activate economic growth, and the US dollar suffered a sharp fall against the euro, the largest one-day decline since the listing of the euro in 1999. Affected by this, the international oil price fell sharply, and the crude oil futures in New York broke through $71 at one fell swoop, with an intraday oscillation of $9.50. At the close, the December futures of West Texas light oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange were $70.53 a barrel, up $6.62 from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 62 $77; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil December futures were $66.44 a barrel, up $5.96 from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 58 Jinan assaying spring tension and compression testing machine is mainly used to measure the force of the spring

the exchange rate of the US dollar is often inversely proportional to the futures price. When the exchange rate of the US dollar falls, investors invest their funds in the futures market to maintain their value. The dollar index DXY fell 2.5% on Tuesday, the worst day in 13 years. In late afternoon trading in New York, the US dollar fell 2.8% against the euro to 1:1.2992 US dollars

the global joint interest rate reduction and market rescue measures continue. On Tuesday, the Bank of Australia announced a 75 basis point cut in interest rates to support the economy in coping with the impact of the global slowdown, which was greater than market expectations. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will meet later this week and are also expected to cut interest rates. Investors hope that the relaxation of credit market conditions and the global interest rate cut will stimulate economic growth and ease the financial crisis. On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market rose sharply, and market confidence was encouraged, which led to a further rebound in oil prices

the continuous decline in the retail price of gasoline in the United States has boosted demand again, and the average daily demand has rebounded to more than 9million barrels. According to the statistical report released by MasterCard consulting, as of October 31, when it was the highest for the first time in the week, the average daily gasoline consumption in the United States was 9.015 million barrels, an increase of 1.3% over the previous week, but it was still 3.9% lower than the same period last year, which was a 28 week decline year-on-year. In the past four weeks, gasoline demand in the United States has been 6.6% lower than that in the same period last year, which is the four week average of 39 consecutive weeks of decline. Since the beginning of this year, the gasoline demand in the United States has been 3.3% lower than that in the same period last year

OPEC decided to reduce production from November 1. Although Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia reduced its crude oil supply with a large headline, resulting in a sharp rise in oil prices by 10% on Tuesday, the news of Saudi Arabia's production reduction was not confirmed. According to a survey by Dow Jones newswires, OPEC's daily average crude oil production in October was 32.05 million barrels, 90000 barrels lower than that in September. The daily crude oil production of the 12 member countries of OPEC with quotas was 29.8 million barrels, 150000 barrels lower than the average daily production in September. Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production decreased by 125000 barrels, the United Arab Emirates by 125000 barrels, Kuwait by 50000 barrels, Iran by 30000 barrels, Nigeria by 70000 barrels, and Iraq by 60000 barrels

if the output surveyed by Dow Jones is true, zhuochuang believes that excluding 850000 barrels per day in Indonesia, the daily output of crude oil of the 11 member countries with OPEC quotas in October was 28.95 million barrels, which means that OPEC will also subtract 1.65 million barrels per day of actual crude oil production to reach the new quota target implemented on November 1. Among them, Saudi Arabia should reduce the daily output of crude oil by 823000 barrels, accounting for half of the output that OPEC should reduce. Zhuochuang analyzed from the perspective of history and political pattern, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to reduce its daily crude oil production to near the quota of 8.5 million barrels in the short term

the sharp rise in oil prices caused by the sharp fall of the US dollar on Tuesday may be a short-term fluctuation. Once the dollar rebounds, oil prices will fall back. In addition, the US oil inventory data released on Wednesday is also a key factor affecting the market

analysts generally estimate that U.S. crude oil inventories continue to grow. The computer automatically calculates the yield strength, tensile strength, modulus of elasticity, elongation, etc. in the Reuters updated survey, analysts on average expect that the U.S. crude oil inventory last week, which will be released on Wednesday, will increase by 1.1 million barrels; It is estimated that gasoline inventories in the United States fell by 800000 barrels and distillate inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels. In the survey updated by Dow Jones, 13 analysts estimated an average increase of 1.2 million barrels. It is estimated that U.S. gasoline inventory fell by 600000 barrels, distillate oil inventory increased by 1.1 million barrels, and refinery operating rate increased by 0.3%

Credit Suisse predicts that China's oil demand will grow by more than 0.2% next year, which is far from the 4% growth originally estimated by the bank. At the same time, Credit Suisse Bank also made a substantial reduction in its forecast for the growth of oil demand in other parts of Asia next year, believing that the growth rate was only 0.3%. It is expected that the global oil demand will decline by 300000 barrels per day next year, which is the largest decline since 1982. In view of this, the oil price is also difficult to rebound. Credit Suisse Bank predicts that the average barrel of West Texas crude oil will be $60 next year, compared with $75 last time

Societe Generale lowered its oil price forecast. In view of more economies entering the stage of decline, Industrial Bank predicts that the average price of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2009 is $72.50 per barrel and Brent crude oil is $71 per barrel. Last time, the Bank predicted that the average price of these two kinds of crude oil in 2009 was $114.17 and $113.50 respectively. The bank predicts that crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange will average $101.10 per barrel and Brent crude oil will average $109.46 per barrel this year. The bank believes that the decline in commodity prices is the result of the decline in share prices and the rise in the US dollar exchange rate

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