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2022-08-26
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[investment promotion strategy] the growth of industrial robots slows down, and the coal consumption pressure in the peak season of power consumption is controllable - industry boom observation (0718)

[investment promotion strategy] the growth of industrial robots slows down, and the coal consumption pressure in the peak season of power consumption is controllable - industry boom observation (0718)

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original title: [investment promotion strategy] the growth of industrial robots slows down, Coal consumption pressure in peak season is controllable - industry boom observation (0718)

emerging industry chain: smart shipments and sales fell in June, and users' demand for replacement is relatively weak; In May, the growth rate of global semiconductor sales was acceptable, and China's semiconductor consumer demand was significantly stronger than that of Europe and the United States; The month on month decline in the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June was in line with expectations, and the production and sales structure continued to move up; The growth rate of industrial robot sales slowed sharply. Resource goods: the negative impact of the shed reform policy on the demand for steel is weakened; Stable coal inventory; Cement prices fell; The price of cobalt stabilized

⚑ [emerging industries] smart shipments fell in June, and users' demand for machine replacement was relatively weak. At present, the market capacity of intelligence is gradually saturated, and the market share tends to be stable after experiencing a rapid rise stage. In the first half of 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of intelligent shipments was -17.8%; After the improvement in April and may, the shipment and output of smart phones have turned into negative growth. In June, the shipment and output have declined to varying degrees, and the user's replacement demand is relatively weak. The emergence of innovative technologies such as full screen and wireless charging is expected to become the core driving force of a new round of replacement demand

⚑ [emerging industries] in May, the growth rate of global semiconductor sales remained at about 20%, and the semiconductor consumption demand in China was significantly better than that in Europe and the United States. The year-on-year growth rate of sales in China increased by 6.4 percentage points compared with that in April; Sales growth in the Americas and Europe fell to varying degrees. In June, the IC trade deficit decreased, and the growth rate of import value fell back to the level equivalent to the growth rate of export value; At the same time, the output of domestic integrated circuits has accelerated. At present, the domestic integrated circuit capacity is expanding. It is expected that 2019 will enter the stage of capacity release, and all parts of fasteners shall not be damaged

⚑ [emerging industries] as the rush to load fades and subsidies decline, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales in June fell month on month, in line with market expectations. In June, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicle production fell back to 32.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate of sales fell back to 42.4%. The sales volume structure of new energy vehicles continued to move up. In the sales volume of new energy vehicles in May, the proportion of A00 level sales fell to 61.5% from 62.9% in April, while the proportion of A0 level sales increased to 12.5% from 8.9% in April

⚑ [emerging industries] the growth rate of industrial robot sales slowed significantly in June. The slowdown in passenger car production has a certain impact on the demand for industrial robots. At the same time, the market share of domestic robots has been squeezed by foreign brands. With the slowdown in the sales of passenger cars and the increase in the popularity of industrial robots in the production line of vehicle manufacturers, the demand for industrial robots in the automotive industry is less strong than in the past. According to the preliminary calculation of IFR and CRIA, the inflow of foreign brand robots into the domestic market accelerated in 2017, which had a certain impact on the sales of domestic robots

⚑ [resource products] the negative impact of the shed reform policy on the demand for steel is weakened, while Tangshan area is tightened by the environmental protection policy, and the amount of steel available at the supply end is significantly weakened; The main steel inventory fell slightly compared with last week, and the prices of billets and deformed steel bars rose. In the past Saturday, the coal inventory of big power generation group changed little and entered the peak season of power demand. However, due to the reduction of industrial power consumption and the increase of hydropower, the year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption fell slightly, and the inventory was stable. In terms of building materials, recently, cement prices in various regions have fallen to varying degrees, and the glass inventory of production lines has continued to maintain negative growth. Industrial metal prices fluctuated, and inventories of tin and aluminum increased significantly; The price of small metal cobalt stabilized and rebounded, stabilizing at 530000 yuan/ton

⚑ [consumer demand] pork prices have slightly warmed, the range of breeding profit losses has narrowed significantly, and the price of chicken seedlings has rebounded. In July, high-quality films exploded in the summer, driving a substantial increase in box office revenue and movie attendance

risk tip: the strength of industrial support is less than expected, the overseas economy fluctuates, trade friction intensifies

catalogue

01

information technology industry chain

1. In June, smart shipments fell, and the user's demand for machine replacement was relatively weak

at present, the market capacity of smart is gradually full, and the market share tends to stabilize after experiencing a rapid rise stage. In the first half of 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of smart shipments was -17.8%. With the extension of user replacement cycle, the smart market gradually entered the stock game stage, and the emergence of innovative technologies such as comprehensive screen and wireless charging is expected to become the core driving force of a new round of replacement demand

in June, the output and sales of smart phones declined to varying degrees, and the user's demand for machine replacement was relatively weak. After the improvement in April and may, the shipment and output of intelligence turned into negative growth; The output was 107.98 million units in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5.1% in the month and 10.4% in May; The shipment volume was 34.986 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11.4% in the month and 1.7% in May

2. Domestic demand for semiconductors is still high, and the trade deficit of integrated circuits has narrowed.

the demand for semiconductors in China is still strong. In May, the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales rose slightly to 21.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month. In terms of regions, the year-on-year growth rate of sales in China rose to 28.5%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points compared with that in April; Sales growth in the Americas and Europe fell to varying degrees, down 2.5 and 2.7 percentage points respectively. In July, the dynamic random access memory dram price DXI index was in a high fluctuation state, and on July 17, the index rose slightly by 0.20% to 27948.4. In April, the operating revenue of Taiwan stocks on passive components MLCC increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 77.3%; After entering 2018, the operating revenue of MLCC in Taiwan stocks increased rapidly

in June, the trade deficit of integrated circuits decreased and domestic output increased slightly. The monthly output value of domestic integrated circuits was 85million pieces, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rose to 15.0%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the monthly growth rate. The output of domestic integrated circuits is under construction and expansion. In terms of import and export, the cumulative growth rate of IC export value fell slightly to 33.9% in June, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of import value fell to 35.2%. The trade deficit narrowed from US $2million in May to US $1.78 million

3. The month on month decline in the production and sales of new energy vehicles is in line with expectations, and the sales structure continues to move up.

with the rush to load fades and subsidies decline, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales in June fell month on month, in line with market expectations. According to the statistical caliber of China Automobile Industry Association, the output of new energy vehicles in June was 86000, and the year-on-year growth rate of the month fell to 32.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate in May was 88.2%; In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in June was 84000, and the year-on-year growth rate of the month fell to 42.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate in May was 126.7%

the sales structure of new energy vehicles continued to move up, and the proportion of class A0 sales increased significantly. According to the statistical caliber of the passenger car Association, in the sales of new energy vehicles in May, the proportion of A00 level sales fell to 61.5% from 62.9% in April. At the same time, the proportion of A0 level sales testing machine that can stop testing quality or performance through control software rose to 12.5% from 8.9% in April. In the second half of the year, the driving force of new energy vehicle sales will gradually shift to the market demand side, and the sales structure will be further optimized

the sales of industrial robots slowed down in April and June, and the share of robots of foreign brands increased in 2017

the slowdown in the production of passenger cars has a certain impact on the demand for industrial robots, while the market share of domestic robots has been squeezed by foreign brands. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic production of industrial robots in June was 13777 units, and the year-on-year growth rate of the month fell to 7.2%, 27.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The cumulative sales volume of robots in September was 73849, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 23.9%, a decrease of 28.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year. There is a strong demand for industrial robots in the automobile, auto parts and other industries, accounting for about 40% of the total sales of industrial robots; With the slowdown in the sales of passenger cars and the increase in the popularity of industrial robots in the production line of vehicle manufacturers, the demand for industrial robots in the automotive industry has declined to a certain extent compared with before. At the same time, according to the preliminary calculation of IFR and CRIA, the inflow of foreign brand robots into the domestic market accelerated in 2017, which had a certain impact on the sales of domestic robots

in 2017, the sales of industrial robots in China maintained a high growth rate, and the sales of foreign brand robots accelerated. According to the preliminary calculation of IFR (International Robot) and China robot industry alliance (CRIA), the sales volume of China's industrial robot market continued to grow in 2017, with a cumulative sales of 141000 units throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 58.1%, and the growth rate hit a record high. Among them, 37800 domestic robots were sold, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.8%; Foreign robots sold 103000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 71.9%. The sales growth rate of domestic robots remained basically stable, and the sales of foreign brands accelerated significantly. Foreign robots accounted for 73.2% of China's total sales, up 5.9 percentage points from 2016

02

high frequency tracking of resource products

1. Entering the off-season of July, the steel supply inventory bucked the trend and decreased

the negative impact of the shed reform policy on the demand for steel was weakened, while Tangshan area was tightened by the environmental protection policy, limiting production by 50%, and the amount of steel available at the supply end was significantly weakened. As of July 13, the inventory of major steel products fell slightly by 1.27% to 9.9698 million tons compared with last week, and the year-on-year growth rate rose slightly to 9.36%; Compared with the same period in history, steel inventory is at a low level. As of July 18, the prices of billets and deformed bars were 3732.50 yuan/ton and 4178.0 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.34% and 0.89% respectively from last week. On July 13, the domestic iron ore port inventory fell to 153.53 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.43%; The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of Tangshan Steel Plant remained unchanged, 74.4% and 80.2% respectively. As of June 30, the year-on-year growth rate of average daily output of crude steel fell to 4.73%, and the estimated year-on-year growth rate of average daily output of crude steel fell to 5.7%

2. The increase of hydropower alleviates the pressure of coal consumption in thermal power, and the coal inventory is stable.

the coal inventory of large power generation groups has changed little in the past Saturday, entering the peak season of power demand. However, due to the reduction of industrial power consumption and the increase of hydropower, the year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption has fallen slightly, and the inventory is stable. On July 18, the available days of coal inventory of the six power generation groups was 20.92 days, a slight decrease of 0.1 days compared with last week. On July 16, the price of thermal coal was 676.2 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from last week; On July 17, the price of coking coal was 1750 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from last week. On July 18, the total year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption of the six power generation groups fell back to 13.7%

3. The average price of cement in various regions fell, and the glass inventory fell, but the price was stable.

in terms of glass price, on July 17, compared with last week, the price of float glass was stable, about 1600.48/ton. In terms of inventory, on July 13, the year-on-year growth rate of glass inventory on the production line was -3.74%, and the year-on-year growth rates of color glass and white glass were -14.60% and -2.44%

in the past year, therefore, there was no possibility of large-scale resumption of production in domestic mines in a short time. The average cement price in various regions fell one after another this week. After entering the off-season, cement

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