The most popular recent glass futures price will s

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In the near future, the glass futures price will still maintain a weak bottom pattern

after the failure of the early upward pressure line of 1500 yuan/ton, the main 1309 contract of glass recently fell continuously to around 1455 yuan/ton. Although the fundamentals of glass itself remain moderate and positive, the glass futures price will still maintain a weak bottom pattern in the near future under the inhibition of the continuous macro short and the accumulation of real estate regulation risks

real estate is still the biggest risk point

for building materials such as glass, the biggest risk in the near future is still concentrated in real estate regulation. The regulation of bad news is not to squeeze the substantial demand for short-term glass, but to ensure the reliability of the sample measuring station and fixture is to suppress the trend of futures prices through long-term pessimistic expectations. In terms of the real demand for glass in the real estate industry, since the glass is required to be loaded evenly and slowly, it is generally used in the late stage of housing construction, so the demand in 2013 has basically been determined in the housing construction and construction area in 2012. According to my estimation, this demand growth rate is about 7%

on March 25, Guangzhou issued the first local version of the "national five articles". The control measures still focus on the 20% individual income tax, loan restriction and purchase restriction of second-hand houses, but the specific implementation is still blank. The local detailed rules will be issued successively at the end of March, but it is expected that the provisions are not much different from the previous version of the State Council. The substantial impact of regulation on the real estate industry still depends on the policy intention of the government and the local implementation. This point is not clear at present. Concerns about the implementation of overweight local real estate regulation will continue to suppress the future price of glass

even excluding the uncertainty of real estate regulation, the overall monetary environment in 2013 also inhibited the strong recovery of the real estate industry. The target growth rate of M2 in 2013 was only 13%, compared with 14% in the past two years. The central bank's continuous positive repurchase since March also indicates that the monetary policy has changed from loose to neutral. The slowdown of liquidity expansion will inevitably restrain the recovery of the real estate market. Even without considering the unexpected impact of regulatory policies, the limited recovery of real estate demand will restrain the space above the long-term glass price

the industry fundamentals have improved moderately.

in the industry, after a large reduction in production in the first half of 2012, the relative gap for each environmental or reliability test will continue in the first half of this year. The lag of capacity recovery makes the glass industry maintain a moderate recovery trend in the first half of the year. Since the first quarter, the fundamentals of glass have shown a trend of moderate price, capacity recovery and inventory reduction

the rapid expansion of glass production line in the first quarter slightly weakened market confidence. Since 2013, the number of national float glass production lines has increased by 7 to 291 compared with the end of last year. In the past seven years, only the cumulative increase in 2008 exceeded this year. Despite the recent pressure on capacity growth, the delay in supply recovery left some room for glass price recovery in the first half of the year. After the reduction of effective capacity in the first three quarters of 2012, the capacity began to recover positive growth in the fourth quarter. The profit of the glass industry also turned from loss to profit slightly from the fourth quarter. According to the one-year construction cycle of a production line, the gap between supply and demand will continue at least in the first half of this year

macro bear atmosphere continues

based on the strong cyclical characteristics of major downstream industries, glass, like the stock index and rebar, has a very close linkage between the short-term trend and macro factors. The recent macro level is also the continuation of the short atmosphere. The domestic market also lacks more data to verify the degree of economic recovery after the earlier HSBC PMI exceeded expectations. Various negative rumors, such as the clean-up of shadow banks and the early opening of IPOs, have continuously impacted market confidence

on the periphery, although the Cyprus incident has been temporarily resolved, the solution to the case has further raised investors' concerns about the capital flight and solvency of the euro zone, and the market risk aversion has increased unabated; Although the US data in the first quarter showed strong performance, the market was worried that some debt tightening would inhibit the economic performance in the second quarter. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

Zhonghua glass () Department

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